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Последствия хомячьего бунта WallStreetBets: как шалости инвесторов Reddit отразились на фондовом и криптовалютном рынках

Фондовый рынок — сложный организм, который живет по своим правилам и имеет некоторые закономерности. Они существуют уже десятки лет и до недавних пор казались устоявшимися. Ситуация, когда Большие Игроки управляют толпой хомяков для достижения своих целей — обыденность как для фондового, так и для криптовалютного рынков. Управление осуществляется через группу факторов, учитывающих психологию толпы — например, активно используется ряд вовремя поданных сигналов СМИ, благодаря которым толпа сливает и покупает тогда, когда это выгодно силам, которые правят бал. Закон рынка гласит: Большой Игрок всегда выигрывает.

События середины января-начала февраля поставили финансовые рынки в тупик: хомяки вырвались на свободу и начали творить беспредел — сами устанавливать правила игры, решать, какие активы скупать, подвели под монастырь один из старейших хедж-фондов. Не исключено, конечно, что эта «движуха» стала результатом чьей-то закулисной игры и таким образом кто-то из сильных мира сего утопил конкурентов. Ведь финансовый мир не знает сантиментов и достаточно жесток для подобных фокусов. Однако все-таки хочется верить, что нам довелось наблюдать некое исключение из правила. Итак, что же произошло, и самое главное, как проделки инвесторов Reddit отразились на финансовых рынках?
Что произошло: чем Reddit не угодили шортисты?
На момент закрытия продаж на мировых биржах 12 января акции компании GameStop Corp. (биржевой тикер GME) стоили $19,95 при объеме примерно 7 миллионов сделок. Всего через 15 дней GME закрылись по цене $347,51 при объеме торгов 93,45 млн. Инвесторы, которые купили 12 января и продали 27 января, получили почти 1800% прибыли. За 15 дней. Причина столь стремительного роста в том, что форум сообщества Reddit под названием “Ставки на Уолл-стрит” (WallStreetBets) совместными усилиями более чем 2,9 миллионов подписчиков пошел войной на шортистов из хедж-фондов Уолл-стрит.

Пользователи Reddit устроили битву пролетариата и буржуазии, решив проучить хедж-фонды и запустив акции умирающей сети компьютерных магазинов GameStop в космос. Участники группы WallStreetBets общими усилиями смогли поднять стоимость GME в 20 раз — эта шалость чуть было не привела к банкротству одного из крупнейших хедж-фондов Melvin Capital, который ранее поставил на снижение акций GameStop и был спасен только за счет экстренного вливания $3 млрд извне.

Не успел рынок оправиться от удара пользователей Reddit по хедж-фондам, как вдруг участники сообщества переключились на серебро. Трейдеры WallStreetBets решили, что рынок серебра страдает от манипуляций со стороны крупных компаний и действовали по сценарию GameStop. В итоге акции серебра выросли более чем на 11%, впервые с 2013 года превысив отметку в 30 долларов за унцию. Цель, которую преследовали онлайн-трейдеры с Reddit — создать ситуацию шорт-сквиза, что нанесет удар по крупным компаниям, которые ставили на падение акций серебра.
Звездный час DOGE
Twitter-аккаунт WSB Chairman (англ. — председатель WallStreetBets) своими твитами взялся провоцировать скачки на рынке криптовалют. Твит «Стоил когда-нибудь Dogecoin $1?» спровоцировал рост шуточной криптовалюты, так как читатели аккаунта восприняли его как призыв к действию. После этого онлайн-инвесторы начали скупать DOGE, вследствие чего монета выросла на 800% и заняла 7 место в списке криптовалют.

Владельцы криптовалюты Dogecoin, которые когда-то в шутку ее приобрели, отметили, что раньше подобный рост DOGE казался нереальным, несмотря на то, что разные медийные личности с самого момента создания монеты пытались сподвигнуть общественность ее поддержать. Илон Маск, который несколько раз за последние три года предпринимал попытки популяризации «собачьей монетки», поддержал всеобщее веселье и подлил масла в огонь. В своем Twitter-аккаунте он выложил фотографию собаки, которую многие пользователи восприняли как призыв скупать DOGE — а у Илона все-таки 44.7 млн подписчиков.
Законно ли то, что сделали трейдеры WSB?
Многие, и в особенности те, кто не извлек выгоду из роста цен на акции, ставят под сомнение законность того, что WallStreetBets использовала свое влияние для манипулирования ценами акций компаний, не принимая во внимание откровенную слабость их фундаментальных показателей. Расследования того, что произошло, ведут Конгресс, Комиссия по ценным бумагам и биржам (SEC) и Министерство юстиции США. В столь зарегулированной стране, как США, вольности, подобные тем, что позволили себе WSB, едва ли допустимы — очень вероятно, что трейдеры нарушили сразу несколько государственных и федеральных законов.

Что можно сказать точно? Что пользователи Reddit открыли ящик Пандоры, за развитием событий вокруг которого завороженно следит весь мир. Со стороны кажется, что WSB действовали стихийно, однако вряд ли это так. Грамотный шорт-сквиз организуют мастера биржевой игры, и по логике вещей долго продолжаться такая открытая провокация рынков не сможет. В конце-концов, речь идет о больших заработках, да еще и на бирже — так что на форумах Reddit уже наверняка открыт сезон охоты на негласных лидеров движения WSB.
Старые добрые pump & dump
Ключевое различие между классической схемой накачки и сброса и действиями сообщества WallStreetBets — в том, что никакой ложной или вводящей в заблуждение информации в попытке повысить цены акций сообщество не распространяло. Трейдеры пожелали купить акции не потому, что до них дошла инсайдерская новость о том, что GameStop или другие компании вырастут, а потому, что они хотели выставить шорт-позиции хедж-фондов, которые намеренно доводили компании до банкротства. И хотя деньги наверняка были одним из факторов, которые сподвигли трейдеров к согласованным действиям, очевидно, что личная выгода не была их основной мотивацией.

Несмотря на огромные потенциальные потери в результате значительного падения стоимости акций, которые приобрели инвесторы WallStreetBets, многие пользователи сабреддита стойко держатся и требуют того же от собратьев, напоминая друг другу, что главная цель движения — наказать бесчеловечные хедж-фонды с их шортами. Пользователь под ником keyboredwarrior выразил всеобщее мнение о предмете, написав: “Нам просто нужно держать их и истекать кровью до смерти…. Мы ничего не теряем оттого, что держим акции, а они теряют миллиарды”.

Подобная откровенность и прозрачность, как ни парадоксально, создает проблему в определении состава преступления и затрудняет работу органов. И ведь самое главное для властей во всей этой истории — не наказать, а предотвратить подобные “фортеля” в будущем.
Манипулировал ли рынком Robinhood?
Reddit-ветка WallStreetBets — не единственная, кому грозят проверки контролирующих органов. Тема манипулирования рынком возникла в ответ на решение Robinhood и других инвест-приложений приостановить возможность покупки акций, которые пампили трейдеры WSB. Основанная в 2013 году платформа Robinhood —это приложение, которое предлагает безкомиссионную торговлю акциями и биржевыми фондами (ETF). Robinhood странно выглядит на фоне своего решения, ведь изначально площадка заявляла, что гордится тем, что внедряет “финансовую демократию для всех». Кредо Robinhood: “Мы считаем, что каждый должен иметь доступ к финансовым рынкам”.

После резкого роста объема торгов и цен на акции 28 января руководство Robinhood решило наступить на горло собственной песне. Площадка разрешила пользователям только продавать акции, которые попали в фокус внимания WSB. То есть покупать эти акции вдруг стало нельзя. Причину такого шага компания обозначила как некую “волатильность рынка”. 29 января Robinhood пошел на небольшие уступки, разрешив пользователям покупать акции — но строго по одной штуке от каждой компании в день. При этом налицо была откровенная дискриминация: инвесторы хедж-фондов как ни в чем ни бывало имели право и покупать, и продавать любые акции в неограниченных объемах. Ничего удивительного, что подобная политика принесла Robinhood волну негатива со стороны СМИ: компанию открыто обвинили в манипуляции рынком.
Reddit в эфире
И на сладкое немного позитива — о ключевом событии в отношении легендарного форума и не менее легендарной криптовалюты. В начале февраля Ethereum Foundation и Reddit заключили партнерство. Компании вместе будут работать над масштабированием ETH. Разработанная в результате сотрудничества технология будет находиться в открытом доступе, чтобы каждый мог ей воспользоваться. В официальном объявлении на платформе говорится, что в планах компаний довести Ethereum до масштабов аудитории Reddit. Этим займутся backend-разработчики криптокоманды Reddit, выступающие за создание децентрализованного интернета.

Союз Reddit и Ethereum положительно скажется на второй криптовалюте. Со всех сторон говорят, что перспективы у Ethereum только блестящие: переход на  ETH 2.0 с ее новыми технологиями, направленными на масштабируемость, стейкинг, февральское добавление ETH фьючерсов на CME — все это делает эфир привлекательным инвестиционным активом и гибкой криптовалютой, операции с которой станут гораздо удобнее и дешевле. Все так, однако в этой бочке меда есть и ложка дегтя: не стоит забывать, что американская SEС ставит под большой вопрос саму технологию 2.0.

По мнению Комиссии по ценным бумагам и биржам, распределение новых монет посредством стейкинга может расцениваться как эмиссия ценных бумаг. И соответствующий вопрос уже находится в разработке у Комиссии по торговле товарными фьючерсами США (CFTC). Если стейкинг действительно признают эмиссией ценных бумаг, это поставит под сомнение как судьбу ETH 2.0, так и стейкинга как технологии в целом.

В том случае, если вопрос о ценных бумагах будет снят, на ближайший год вижу эфир как самую перспективную криптовалюту для инвестирования в разрезе рост стоимости/надежность — наряду с биткойном, разумеется. Возможно, в ближайшем квартале Ethereum приблизится к отметке в $2000 — пожалуй, в свете последних новостей, такое развитие событий вполне вероятно.

Автор: Никита Сошников, Директор сервиса обмена криптовалют Alfacash

Источник
bitnovosti.com
источник:bitnovosti.com

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